Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector – Key Updates in 2025 “Are there Good Reasons to be Upbeat?”

NNPCL INITIAL PUBLIC OFFER (IPO) AT FINAL STAGE 

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) is in the final stages of listing on the capital market as it prepares for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021. 

This was disclosed by Mr. Olugbenga Oluwaniyi, the company’s Chief Finance and Investor Relations Officer, on Thursday 27 March 2025. 

He revealed that NNPC Ltd has commenced an “IPO Beauty Parade”, a strategic engagement with prospective partners to ensure compliance with capital market regulations ahead of its planned listing. 

An IPO, which allows institutional investors to purchase shares in a company for the first time, will officially introduce NNPC Ltd to the stock market. 

Three key areas where partnerships are needed were mentioned: Investor Relations, IPO Readiness Advisers, and Investment Bank Partners. 

The selection of partners will be based on the strength of their proposals and their ability to provide comprehensive support in these areas. 

Under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, NNPC Ltd is required to transition from a state-owned entity to a fully commercial enterprise. This transformation also mandates compliance with the Company and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 1990, ensuring transparency, efficiency, and profitability. 

This move represents a major shift in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. By opening up to investors, NNPC Ltd aims to enhance corporate governance, attract private sector investment, and boost operational efficiency. 

NNPC Ltd is in the final stages of preparing for its IPO, a move that will significantly impact the Nigerian economy and the global oil and gas market. 

The ongoing IPO Beauty Parade will determine the best partners to guide the company through this crucial phase, ensuring a successful public offering. 

NNPC  is following the example of several state-owned oil firms that have gone public and turned out to be huge global successes. Such as  Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), Sinopec (China), Gazprom (Russia), National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Petrobras (Brazil). 

OIL PRICES 

Nigerian Bonny Light crude oil is currently trading at approximately  $74 per barrel. While oil prices have shown some volatility recently, with Brent crude futures (the benchmark pricing for Nigerian Bonny Light crude) recently settling at around $73.63 per barrel, Reuters reports that they are generally expected to remain in the mid-$70s range in the coming months, with potential for further increases due to factors like geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.  

Geopolitical tensions are exemplified by the intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, potentially leading to a “geopolitical premium” in crude prices.  

Global crude oil supply will invariably be impacted by new U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude oil, which could remove significant volumes from the market and drive oil prices upward.  

OPEC+ has also announced plans for gradual production increases however, it is anticipated that they will produce less than their announced targets to limit increases in global oil inventories.  

The February 2025 crude oil production data in Nigeria shows 1,465,006 BPD, which is lower than January 2025 but higher than October 2024 by 9%. This remains well below Nigeria’s daily production capacity and although daily production is limited within the OPEC+, Nigerian Oil Production Quota of 1.5mbpd currently applicable between June 2, 2024 and December 2025. 

The federal government has remained upbeat about the fresh upward trajectory of the country’s oil and gas sector, disclosing that an additional $2 billion in new investments would be expected by the end of the first quarter of 2025, a few months after Shell commenced development of the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater project. 

Additionally, 74 Chinese companies have indicated their interest in investing in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. These companies are part of the 216 companies from China that are interested in investing in various sectors of the country’s economy, according to a statement issued by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission on Monday. 

The Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Nigeria-China Relationship, Jaafaru Yakubu, disclosed this during a recent meeting with the Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe. The commission met with and briefed the management of NUPRC on the ongoing efforts by the Federal Government to enhance the trade balance between Nigeria and China and to fostering an investor-friendly environment 

Following the recent signing of the Nigeria-China Relationship Agreement, a total of 216 Chinese companies have expressed their interest in investing in Nigeria. 

“Out of these, 74 companies are specifically focused on the oil and gas industry, signaling a major boost for the sector. 

It was stated that one of the key initiatives driving this engagement is the upcoming Nigeria-China Summit, where stakeholders from both countries will explore investment opportunities. 

NUPRC’s Target: 

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has set a production target of at least 2.1 million barrels of oil per day (MBOPD) by 2025.  

NUPRC’s Initiatives: 

The commission has introduced a two-phase metering regulation to enhance accurate hydrocarbon measurement and production allocation.  

Notwithstanding a recent drop in production in 2025, since the launch of the 1MBOPD Incremental Initiative in October 2024, Nigeria’s average crude oil production has increased significantly by 250,000 barrels per day, rising from 1.5 million barrels per day (MBPD) to 1.75 MBPD.  

For further enquiries kindly contact the F.O. Akinrele & Co. Energy, Oil & Gas and Natural Resources Group – info@foakinrele.com